USDA’s weekly crop progress numbers continue to paint normal corn and soybean crops. Silking, at 96% percent, is average for this date in the 18 states; dough stage, at 50 percent, is one point ahead of average. Dent stage, however, is behind the 15 percent average at 9 percent. Soybeans are mixed. Blooming is three points behind pace at 88 percent, while pod setting is three points ahead of average at 69 percent.
Looking at condition ratings, both crops are unchanged. Seventy percent of corn and 63 percent of soybeans are rated good/excellent. The poor/very poor categories remain at 9 percent for corn and 11 percent of beans.
WASDE Expectations
Looking ahead to Wednesday’s supply/demand estimates, which will include the special repeat survey of soybean acreage in Arkansas, Kansas and Missouri, traders expect USDA to cut soybean acreage. Based on a Reuters survey, the average estimate for harvested acres is 83.27 million, down 1.4 percent from last month. Harvested corn acres are expected to be 81.02 million, marginally below the July forecast.
Reuters reports soybean production is estimated to be reduced 4.2 percent, to 3.724 billion bushels, and corn, 1.5 percent, to 13.327 billion, from the July report. The average yield guess is 164.5 bu./acre for corn – 1.3 bu./acre below USDA’s weather-adjusted trend yield. Soybeans are expected to be pegged at 44.7 bu./acre, compared with a 46-bu. trend yield. That would be 4 percent below last year’s record 47.8 bu. yield.
FCSAmerica and Frontier States
In the states served by Farm Credit Services of America and Frontier Farm Credit, Nebraska’s good/excellent rating for corn improved two points and South Dakota, one point. The poor/very poor corn ratings improved in every state but Iowa. The most notable change: The rating for Nebraska soybeans worsened to 6 percent poor/very poor. Pod setting in Nebraska was 67 percent, behind the 78 percent seen last year but near the 70 percent average.
|
State
|
Corn Good/Exc.
|
Corn Poor/VP
|
Beans Good/Exc.
|
Beans Poor/VP
|
|
Iowa
|
83%
|
3%
|
79%
|
3%
|
|
Kansas
|
59%
|
10%
|
52%
|
9%
|
|
Nebraska
|
77%
|
5%
|
73%
|
6%
|
|
South Dakota
|
77%
|
4%
|
79%
|
4%
|
Wheat Crop and Insurance Updates: With wheat harvest 97 percent complete, the trade expects the U.S. wheat crop to be boosted slightly due to strong spring wheat results. Excess rain in the Midwest and drought in the Pacific Northwest may slightly reduce total winter wheat production. The average Reuters’ estimate for all wheat production is 2.153 billion bushels, up from 2.148 billion in July.
Wheat growers in South Dakota have some changes in their insurance options for 2016. Both fall-planted and spring-planted wheat now are insurable in all counties. Coverage decisions are due Sept. 30.
The Yield Exclusion (YE) option to exclude yields in eligible years to increase your approved yield will be available on wheat in some counties.
Spring wheat will qualify for a new margin protection pilot in South Dakota for 2016, as will corn in Iowa.
