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Crop Ratings High; It Will Take a Surprise to Give Bulls Any Fodder

Aug 29, 2016

USDA’s week crop update continued to deliver bearish news in the market and time is running out for weather to change the supply side. With corn now 60 percent in the dent stage, ratings continue to be heavily slanted to the good/excellent end of the range.

The widely followed ProFarmer Crop Tour corn yield came in a little below some earlier estimates (see Corn Rating Inches Lower; Soybeans Improve), at 170.2 bu./acre, but the difference wasn’t enough to feed bullish notions.

State

Percent Dented

Good/Excellent

Poor/Very Poor

 

Aug. 28

Aug. 28

Aug. 21

Aug. 28

Aug. 21

18 States

60

75

75

7

7

Iowa

65

83

83

4

4

Nebraska

61

75

75

6

6

South Dakota

45

52

53

18

17

 

Soybeans

The high end of soybean ratings actually increased compared with a week ago for the 18 states as well as the states we serve, and only South Dakota saw a 1-point worsening in poor/very poor in our territory.

 

State

 

Percent Pod Setting

Good/Excellent

Poor/Very Poor

 

Aug. 28

Aug. 28

Aug. 21

Aug. 28

Aug. 21

18 States

94

73

72

7

7

Iowa

96

82

82

4

4

Nebraska

96

77

76

4

5

South Dakota

96

59

59

13

12



TellusLabsProFarmer’s soybean yield was actually higher than estimates we quoted two weeks ago, at 49.3 bu./acre. That’s right on target with the 49.6 bu. estimated by TellusLabs, which bases its projections on satellite imagery. 

In fact, one map on their website shows 50.7 bu.


Weather Impacts

There are some who still believe harvested yields will fall a bit short of projections. For instance, the National Weather Service reports there were almost three dozen tornadoes reported on the ground on August 24 in Indiana and Ohio alone, though it is uncertain how many acres may have been affected. Meanwhile, several tropical depressions could spell more rain in the soggy South.

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Key Crop Insurance Dates

March 05, 2019
Projected Price Announced
Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat

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