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Crop Conditions Steady; Prices Firm After Supply/Demand

Jul 12, 2016

In the week ended July 10, USDA’s 18-state corn condition improved one point to 76 percent good/very good and held steady at 5 percent poor/very poor.

Iowa and Nebraska ratings were stable, but South Dakota’s corn crop lost an additional point on the upper end of the ratings while the poor/very poor number increased two points (see table).

State

Good/Very Good

Poor/Very Poor

 

July 10

July3

July 10

July 3

18 States

76

75

5

5

Iowa

79

79

4

4

Nebraska

80

80

4

4

South Dakota

67

68

9

7


Silking more than doubled to 32 percent, six points ahead of the five-year average in the 18 states. Iowa, at 29 percent, is far ahead of its average 17 percent; Nebraska, also at 29 percent, is six points ahead of average and South Dakota’s 19 percent is more than double the average 8 percent. The moisture and overcast conditions in parts of the region served by FCSAmerica offered respite from the above-average temperatures.

Forty percent of soybeans in the 18 states were blooming, up from 22 percent the prior week. Iowa and South Dakota are ahead of average, at 40 percent and 52 percent, respectively, against averages of 34 and 35 percent. Nebraska continues to lag, with 28 percent in bloom against 36 percent on average. Pod setting in the 18 states has reached 7 percent.

Soybeans shifted one point from the poor end of the range to the good end. Nebraska and South Dakota conditions improved slightly, while Iowa was unchanged.

State

Good/Very Good

Poor/Very Poor

June 26, 2016; June 28, 2015

July 10

July 3

July 10

July 3

18 States

71

70

6

7

Iowa

77

77

5

5

Nebraska

78

77

4

7

South Dakota

69

67

7

7


Kansas wheat harvest is 91 percent complete, right on its five-year average.  Dow Jones reports the statewide yield at 56.0 bu./acre, up from 48.0 last year. The U.S. average is pegged at 53.9 bu./acre compared with 42.5 bu. last year. USDA’s supply/demand report today bumped all wheat production up 97 million bu. from June, to 2.261 billion, with winter wheat at 1.628 billion, about 90 million more than the trade expected.

Markets Firming up

Despite continued prospects for a large crop, December corn futures have stabilized in the $3.50-$3.60 range. Support was found in today’s USDA supply/demand report where 2015 ending stocks shrank 7 million bushels instead of increasing 100 million as the trade expected. New-crop production, estimated at 14.54 billion bushels, was 17 million larger than the average trade guess. Likewise, ending stocks for 2016/17 were up 73 million bushels from the June report, far short of the 205 million increase the trade anticipated.

Soybeans are even stronger, with November trading near $10.75, after falling to $10.25 last week. Old-crop ending stocks were lowered 20 million bushels from June and below trade expectations. New crop carryover increased 30 million from June to 290 million, but 5 million below the trade guess.

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March 05, 2019
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Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat

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